Transportation forecasting company FTR Associates is reporting strong current production in North American commercial trucks and trailers, but cautions that a significant portion of current demand is a short-run surge being created by the imminent onset of new EPA-compliant 2010 engines.
Fleets appear to be taking advantage of build slots for power units with pre-2010 EPA engines while they are still available, pulling demand forward from the second half of the year. Eric Starks, president of FTR Associates, explains that “the current production numbers will not be sustained once the remaining stock of pre-2010 engines is exhausted. The basic issue affecting overall 2010 demand—the still large inventory of underutilized and idle trucks—remains. Pulling ahead orders now to avoid 2010 engine technology will be at the expense of second half production.”