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Imports Set New ‘Peak Season’ Record as Retailers Prepare for Holidays

Imports Set New ‘Peak Season’ Record as Retailers Prepare for Holidays

Nov. 12, 2020
"The economic challenges of the pandemic aren’t over yet, but this clearly shows how an industry that has been under stress is fighting back in a positive way," said Jonathan Gold of NRF.

Imports likely saw their busiest “peak season” on record this summer and fall as retailers replenished inventories and stocked up for the holiday season, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released on Nov. 9 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Peak season is the Superbowl of the supply chain world each year as retailers make sure they have enough merchandise on hand to satisfy demand during the holidays, and this is the busiest we’ve ever seen,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.

“Part of this surge was fueled by restocking after retail sales rebounded this summer and part could be making sure there aren’t shortages if we see panic buying again. The economic challenges of the pandemic aren’t over yet, but this clearly shows how an industry that has been under stress is fighting back in a positive way. Retailers don’t import merchandise they don’t think they can sell, so this is a good sign for the holiday season.”

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said: “As we near the end of a difficult year in terms of health, trade and politics, we have witnessed record-breaking statistics that have been virtually unpredictable. Imports hit all-time highs this summer and online shopping did the same. Whether similar patterns will continue in the coming months will be influenced to a large extent by the coronavirus pandemic and whether it will be brought under control by the arrival of expected vaccines next year.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled an estimated 8.1 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units from July through October, the peak shipping season when retailers rush to bring in merchandise for the winter holidays each year. While subject to revision once October numbers become final, that would be an increase of 6.1% over last year and would beat the previous record of 7.7 million TEU set in 2018.

The peak season record includes a record 2.11 million TEU imported in September, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was a 12.5% per year-over-year increase and 0.1% higher than August’s previous record of 2.1 million TEU for the largest number of containers imported in a single month since NRF began tracking imports in 2002.

October imports were estimated at 2 million TEU, up 6.5% year-over-year and the fourth-highest month on record.

With most holiday merchandise already in the country, November is forecast at 1.7 million TEU, up 0.2% year-over-year, and December is forecast at 1.58 million TEU, down 8.2% from last year.

Despite the new monthly records, 2020 is expected to total 20.9 million TEU, a drop of 3.4% from last year and the lowest annual total since 20.5 million TEU in 2017.

The first half of 2020 totaled 9.5 million TEU, down 10.1% from last year.

Look at 2021 here area the forecasts:

January at 1.75 million TEU, down 3.7% year-over-year

February at 1.52 million TEU, up 0.9% year-over-year

March at 1.59 million TEU, up 15.7% year-over-year – the month the pandemic first fully hit the United States while factories in China remained closed by the pandemic there.

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