If this research and strategic planning company is correct in its annual projections for the $98 billion expedited cargo market, trucking will be resurgent in 2006.
On the ground, Colography projects ground parcel (up 5.1%) and less-than-truckload (up 3.8%) shipments to maintain their momentum. Combined they are projected to account for 86% of new U.S. expedited shipment growth in the new year.
Air freight projections are for domestic shipment volume to grow just 1.2% over 2005 figures, while international air cargo shipments will increase 7.3%. Hit particularly hard will be air domestic overnight delivery, with minute gains in package and freight, and decline by 0.6% year over year in overnight letter shipping.
Colography sees non-integrated air carriers – including forwarder and combination airlines – growing their domestic air business more rapidly than integrated carriers. Integrators are projected to have 61% of the domestic air market and 70% of exports.
Other key findings from The Colography Group include:
- The gains posted by the non-integrated air carriers will coincide with a continued rebound in the U.S. Postal Service’s Priority Mail product, particularly in the rural residential market where commercial carriers are raising their rates the most.
- The continuing high cost of crude oil will force carriers to maintain fuel surcharges and will become an increasingly important factor in supply chain decision-making. As jet fuel prices are more pronounced and volatile, this trend will have a disproportionately adverse impact on air activity to the benefit of the surface sector.
- Revenue from LTL shipments is projected to rise 11% in 2006, due in part to the impact of escalating fuel surcharges. Revenue for the average LTL shipment is projected to rise 7%, more than double the projected rate of revenue increases for domestic air, air export and ground parcel. In all, U.S. expedited revenue will reach $97.9 billion in 2006, up 7.6% from projected 2005 levels.