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Looking for light on the horizon

In issuing the forecast for shipping in 2004, Ted Scherck, President of The Colography Group, says, "The economic recovery has moved beyond the stop-and-start stage and has fundamentally turned for the better." Because end customer demands are on the increase, he notes, and inventories have reached lows, transport activity should improve well into next year.

Due to shipper requirements, Colography looks for both regional and long haul truckload to improve for carriers as they use newer technology and improved transit times.
In its prognostications, Colography predicts:

  • More than 6.6 billion shipments will move domestically and through air export, which is up from 2003's projected 6.5 billion shipments.
  • Colography projects ground parcel service with the strongest growth, with 3.78 billion shipments - up from 3.69 billion.
  • Revenues from domestic air, ground parcel, less-than-truckload and air export is projected to be up to $82.1 billion from 2003's $79.8 billion.

Scherck has a few cautionary notes. He foresees the average weight of shipments continuing to decline, falling to 28.7 lbs from 29.6 lbs.

Looking at the new Yellow-Roadway entity, Scherck says, "The combined carrier needs to migrate to regional service for shipments moving 700 miles or less, because that's where much of the shipping business is headed."

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