Supply Chain Disruptions: Anticipate What You Can, Prepare for What You Can't

Some events can be predicted or anticipated before they happen, such as hurricanes, port congestion, insolvency, or regional instability. Others strike with little warning. Earthquakes, cyberattacks, or infrastructure failures can be some of the most impactful disruptions that hit without much notice.

When the latest disruption rears its head, risk immediately transforms from an abstract principle to a tangible threat, prompting the need to make quick, informed decisions about what moves, what waits, and who absorbs the impact.

Supply chain professionals, logistics managers, and procurement leaders fight fires as part of their daily operations – a customer places an unexpected order that needs to be fulfilled; a truck carrying inbound materials breaks down on the side of the road; or a supplier delivers on time, but not in full.

When a larger unexpected disruption happens and productivity is impacted, the team, which in many cases is spread across global locations and time zones, must make decisions quickly, often with incomplete data.

More than ever, the responsibility for interpreting and acting on risk is moving closer to the individuals and teams running facilities and transportation networks. When small delays can lead to big financial losses, waiting to escalate issues through a chain of command can be prohibitively expensive.

It is best practice to monitor supply chain risk. When a risk can be sensed before it occurs, you have more time to mitigate it and reduce or entirely avoid any impact on your operations. Organizations that invest in continuous monitoring systems, those that aggregate data from multiple sources, detect anomalies, and alert teams to emerging threats with precision, gain precious time to respond.

When a flood strikes a growing region, a sub-tier supplier files for bankruptcy, or a cyberattack targets critical infrastructure, the first organizations to know are the first to act. Early alerts enable proactive communication with customers, faster activation of contingency plans, and more strategic allocation of constrained resources.

This new reality makes preparation a lot more important than prediction. Instead of trying to predict what the next disruption will be, effective leaders are investing their time in understanding what it looks like from a process perspective across the organization when the unexpected happens.

Defining Risk in Practical Terms

Abstract risks are hard to prepare for. If your CEO tells you to create a plan to mitigate the threat of supply chain fragility, your head can go in a thousand different directions. But if they give you a defined risk – say, over-reliance on a single Tier 2 supplier for a critical component with limited alternatives – the path to a solution is a lot simpler.

When operational risks are clearly and consistently defined, they’re more manageable. In the same vein, risks discussed in broad terms may not feel connected to daily work. It’s hard to gear up for a battle when you don’t know what you’re fighting against.

From a leadership perspective, that means thinking about risk – and communicating risk – in terms of how it will affect operations. What are the specific risk factors that will hurt throughput, worker safety, service levels, or cost control? By tying risk directly to these outcomes, supply chain leaders and their team gain clarity about priorities and decision thresholds. Conversations can naturally shift from abstract exposure to concrete impact.

Clarity also helps businesses determine the best way to use their resources. A distribution network supporting time-sensitive customers – same-day or next-day fulfillment operations or healthcare markets, for example – may focus on risks that threaten delivery windows, labor coverage, and transportation reliability.

On the other hand, networks designed around cost efficiency – big-box retail replenishment, for example – may be more focused on risks to carrier capacity.

Along the same lines, manufacturers expanding into new regions often devote more attention to regulatory requirements, customs processes, and geopolitical conditions, while mature operations with long-standing supplier relationships concentrate on continuity, performance consistency, and incremental disruption. Leaders who make these differences clear help their teams understand where they need to prioritize.

Clear definitions can have a cultural impact as well, reducing friction when things inevitably do go wrong. When teams are using the same words to talk about severity and impact, they can make decisions faster. Fewer debates revolve around how to interpret things, which can free up teams to focus on and enhance the speed of execution.

Over time, a shared vocabulary and a shared understanding will become a part of your organization’s operating rhythm: particularly if leaders reinforce clarity through repetition. And when the dust has settled on a disruption, post-incident discussions and scenario walkthroughs can help teams align expectations and strategies as conditions evolve.

The Bottom Line

Many major events will continue to be unpredictable. What can change is how quickly you know about them and how effectively you respond. Organizations that invest in building risk sensing capabilities—that monitor continuously, alert accurately, and empower operational leaders to act decisively—will outperform competitors who rely on periodic assessments.

The question isn't whether to invest in sensing and alerting capabilities; it's whether you can afford not to. The organizations that thrive will be those that build the infrastructure to see what's coming, alert the right people, and act before disruption becomes crisis. That's not prediction—it's preparation at its most effective.