Imports Declining Following Summer Surge Ahead of Tariffs

For the rest of 2025, import cargo volume at the country's major container ports is expected to decline steadily, according to the Global Port Tracker report released on September 9 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

This decline follows a near-record peak this summer.

“We have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs across the globe, with a number of key trading partners being subjected to tariffs higher than the earlier 10% tariffs,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “We also continue to see more and more sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope of products. Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success. These tariffs and disruptions to the supply chain are adding costs that will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers.”

While “reciprocal” tariffs on a number of countries took effect in early August, a federal appeals court later ruled against President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose the tariffs, but left them in place while the ruling is under appeal to the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, Trump delayed an increase in tariffs on China by 90 days to Nov. 10 so trade negotiations could continue. Trump also announced an additional 25% tariff on India that took effect near the end of August, bringing the additional tariff rate to 50%.

“Tariffs have had a significant impact on trade,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “The trade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.36 million TEU in July, although numbers for New York/New Jersey, Port Everglades and Miami were estimated because they have not yet reported their data. That was up 20.1% from June as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariffs set to take effect in August, and up 1.8% year over year. It would be the second-busiest month on record, topped only by 2.4 million TEU in May 2022.

Ports have not yet reported numbers for August, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.28 million TEU, down 1.7% year over year but higher than the 2.2 million TEU expected before the postponement of China tariffs and the new tariff on India.

Forecasts are as follows:

September is forecast at 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8% year-over-year
October at 1.95 million TEU, down 13.2%,
November at 1.74 million TEU, down 19.7%
December is forecast at 1.7 million TEU, down 20.1% year-over-year for the slowest month since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023.

While the falling monthly totals are related to tariffs, the year-over-year percentage declines are both because of this year’s early peak season and because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns about port strikes.

The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% year-over- year. The full year is forecast at 24.7 million TEU, down 3.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

January 2026 is forecast at 1.8 million TEUs, down 19.1% year-over-year.