Supply Chain Trends to Watch in 2026
End-of-the-year advice on supply chain trends in 2026 from Marsh, an insurance broker, includes keeping an eye on trade policy, regulatory decisions, and making plans for unresolved conflicts.
(The following is excerpted from their article.)
Prepare for upcoming trade policy and regulatory decisions
The US Supreme Court’s pending decision on the government’s use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement wide-ranging tariffs could create a renewed period of uncertainty for businesses in 2026.
If the Court rules this application unlawful, many of the bilateral tariff rates negotiated throughout 2025 could be invalidated immediately, and refunds may be owed on the tariffs collected.
While the US government would likely pivot to alternative means to achieve similar tariff rates, the transition would almost certainly trigger another period of regulatory and pricing flux. Different statutory frameworks come with distinct procedural requirements and scopes, meaning businesses should prepare for potential rule changes requiring renewed adaptation strategies, even if the headline rate remains more or less the same.
Further, the US also enters 2026 with several active Section 232 national security investigations. Companies in affected sectors should anticipate potential cost increases as these investigations conclude. Another area to monitor is so-called derivatives lists, which extend tariffs to products containing already-tariffed inputs and which may expand throughout 2026, even where core trade agreements appear settled.
Certain regulatory measures affecting supply chains may also be modified or delayed in 2026. The European Commission faces pressure from exporters and domestic industries to modify or postpone both the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the Deforestation Regulation. Companies with European exposure should closely monitor these developments, as changes could impact compliance timelines and costs.
Expect previously settled trade agreements and milestones will be under scrutiny
Many 2025 bilateral trade agreements contained specific commitments — investment targets, procurement requirements for US energy products, and other measurable obligations.
Over the course of 2026, the US government will begin to assess compliance with any set milestones. Countries that are considered to be out of compliance with their commitments may face consequences, creating potential supply chain disruptions for companies operating in or sourcing from affected markets.
The stakes are particularly high for the scheduled trilateral review of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA). With Canada and Mexico representing the US’s two largest trading partners, and with bilateral relations remaining unsettled, businesses should carefully track the political process and advocate for their interests rather than adopting a wait-and-see posture.
Develop plans for unresolved conflicts and emerging ones
The conflict landscape remains unpredictable. In 2025, unexpected escalations included the brief India-Pakistan confrontation following a terrorist attack in Kashmir, and the Cambodia-Thailand border dispute triggered by an unplanned military clash.
Meanwhile, long-running conflicts in Sudan, Ukraine, and the Middle East continued. Some may find resolution in 2026, others may intensify, and new flashpoints may emerge.
Risk teams cannot be expected to foresee every conflict. But they can assess vulnerabilities. The priority is identifying where the company’s key exposures or supply chain concentrations are located, then developing scenarios for how conflicts could develop in those areas, however remote the probability seems today. This process can transform potential surprises into more manageable contingencies.