Import Cargo Volume to Remain Down Until Spring: NRF

While import volume at the major container ports is forecast to see its first month-over-month gain in six months during January, year-over-year, it will remain down until spring, according to the Global Port Tracker report released on January 9 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement.

“Retailers had a busy holiday season and are assessing what’s ahead in 2026 so they can keep supply chains running smoothly to ensure consumers can find the products they want at prices they can afford, "Gold added. "Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”

Following “chronic uncertainty” from increased U.S. tariffs in 2025, the impact on cargo imports in 2026 is likely to still be affected by trade policy, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.

“As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances,” Hackett said. “This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million TEUs in November, the latest month for which final data is available.

That was down 2.3% from October and down 6.5% year over year.

Ports have not yet reported numbers for December, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.99 million TEU, down 6.6% year over year. November and December are traditionally slow, but the year-over-year declines are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes. In addition, many retailers imported cargo earlier than usual in 2025 to avoid tariffs.

The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. The full year is forecast at 25.4 million TEU, down 0.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

With volume forecast at 2.11 million TEU, January is expected to see the first month-over-month increase since last July as retailers bring in merchandise prior to February’s Lunar New Year holiday in Asia but would still be down 5.3% year over year.

Looking ahead, the forecast is as follows:

• February is forecast at 1.94 million TEU, down 4.6% year-over-year. 
• March at 1.88 million TEU, down 12.4%
• April at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1%
• May is forecast at 2.07 million TEU, up 6.2% for the first year-over-year gain since last August.