Import Cargo to Drop First Half of 2026

During the first half of 2026, import volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to see a significant year-over-year decline, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“With tariffs still a matter of debate in the courts and in Congress, their effect on imports is being clearly seen,” Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in a statement

“The situation underscores the need for clear and predictable trade policies that support supply chain certainty and reliability, business planning and consumer affordability. Tariffs are a tax on U.S. businesses that is ultimately paid by consumers through higher prices.”

A Supreme Court decision could come at any time on the legality of the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. However, if the court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs, there are concerns that the administration could implement tariffs under other trade authorities, creating further challenges and uncertainty.

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said tariffs have brought “a global change in trade relations” that is affecting import volumes.

“The continuing use of tariffs against friend and foe alike, combined with the uncertainty of when or if they will be implemented, makes trade forecasting very difficult,” Hackett said, adding that last year’s government shutdown is still making up-to-date government data difficult to come by. “Following essentially flat container import volumes in 2025 compared with 2024, we expect a decline during the first half of 2026 and likely longer.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.99 million TEUs in December, although the Ports of Houston and Charleston have not yet reported their data. That was down 1.7% from November and down 6.6% year over year.

Imports for the full year in 2026 totaled 25.4 million TEU, down 0.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

Ports have not yet reported numbers for January, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.11 million TEU, which would be up from December ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia but down 5.2% year over year. February is forecast at 1.97 million TEU, down 3.1% year over year. 

Predictions for the next few months are as follows:

• March at 1.89 million TEU, down 12%
• April at 2.05 million TEU, down 7.1%
• May at 2.13 million TEU, up 9.3%
• June at 2.12 million TEU, up 8%

Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.27 million TEU, down 2% from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025. The May and June results show a year-over-year increase largely because of the sharp drop-off in imports during those months last year after “Liberation Day” tariffs announced in April 2025.