Import Cargo Volume Will Decrease First Half of Year

Imports at major U.S. container ports are expected to remain below last year’s levels for the first half of 2026 amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, according to the Global Port Tracker report released on March 9 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. 

However, the association said it's too soon to gauge the impact of the conflict in Iran.

“The Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs but other tariffs have already been announced and others will be coming, so uncertainty continues for retailers,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement.

“The need for clear and predictable trade policy remains, and long-term planning continues to be difficult for merchants and other businesses. While we agree with holding our trading partners accountable and looking for more domestic manufacturing opportunities, it needs to be understood that tariffs drive up costs for businesses and prices for consumers. They should be used in a strategic manner. In addition to tariffs, we are closely watching the situation in Iran and the potential impact it will have on retail supply chains.”

The Supreme Court last month ruled against the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. President Donald Trump immediately responded by announcing a temporary, 150-day 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and the administration later said the rate could be increased to 15%. The administration is also looking at launching a series of new Section 301 trade investigations.

“The immediate impact on containerized traffic to the United States is not likely to be substantial since little U.S.-bound container cargo is sourced from the region,” said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett, in a statement. “While it is too early to measure in the monthly data, increasing oil and gasoline prices will inevitably drive structural inflation if the conflict persists. That, in turn, could squeeze consumer discretionary spending and U.S. manufacturing, and ultimately drive down import volumes in the longer term.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.08 million TEUs in January, although the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have not yet reported their data. That was up 3.8% from December but down 6.4% year over year.

Ports have not yet reported numbers for February, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.01 million TEU, down 1.3% year over year. March is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.2%. 

Forecasts are as follows:

• April at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1%
• May at 2.09 million TEU, up 7%
• June at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.8%
• July at 2.2 million EU, down 8%.
  

Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.21 million TEU, down 2.5% from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025.

The year-over-year increases in May and June are largely because of the sharp drop-off in imports during those months last year after “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced in April 2025.

Imports during 2025 totaled 25.4 million TEU, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.