Reshoring: Despite Investments, Tariffs Imports Still Rise

Despite changes in US trade and tariff policies and significant changes in geopolitical realities, as of the end of 2025, America remains ever more reliant on imports while its manufacturing capacity remains years away from projected goals.

This is according to a new survey, The Kearney 2026 Reshoring Index: Why US manufacturing imports hit a four-year high despite record investment and tariffs, from consulting firm Kearney 

The Kearney Reshoring Index measures the year-over-year change in the US manufacturing import ratio (MIR) expressed in basis points. MIR is the total manufactured goods imported from 14 Asian low-cost countries and regions (LCCRs), expressed as a percentage of domestic manufacturing output.

Findings from the research include:

Direct imports from Mainland China took another sizeable hit last year. Mostly driven by tariffs, China lost $135 billion, which sees its share of total US manufacturing imports fall below 10%, down from 20% only four years ago.

Meanwhile, the other 13 Asian LCCRs that have historically benefited from US manufacturing offshoring picked up even more in absolute dollar value, gaining $193 billion.

Especially for Computer & Electronics Products, China's volumes moved to Mexico and other Asian LCCRs. C&E imports rose 29% while its domestic output grew only 2.8%. Even after including tariffs, the current costs at the typical source countries of origin for laptops and smartphones stayed below the cost that these products could potentially be made for in the US.

American manufacturing capacity is still lagging. Despite US manufacturing investments tripling over the past four years, there's only been 1.5% growth in capacity so far, as uncertainty and policy changes cause delays and even abandonments of capital projects. Persistent labor, ecosystem, and policy concerns are also reducing executives' reshoring and nearshoring investment ROI expectations.

"As in the past few years, it's important to pay attention to the nuances in our latest report," said Kearney partner and lead author Patrick Van den Bossche, in a statement. "The rise in imports is really being driven by two categories, Computer & Electronics and Apparel & Accessories, which make up 44% of all Asian LCCR imports.

"Both of these are tracking counter to small but promising signs of a broader trend we're starting to see in most of the other categories. The dollar value of these two biggest import categories, which we show in the report are also the hardest to reshore, skews our Reshoring Index picture from an aggregate perspective."

"While the overall picture may look bleak, individual product category performances offer more promise," continued Van den Bossche. "Most product categories are starting to rely less on imports. Their domestic production as a share of their total US consumption went up slightly compared to the portion tied to imports from the Asian LCCRs, but not yet enough to conclusively state that we have turned the corner. And many current and future events can still derail a true US manufacturing resurgence."

"Mexico continued to play a big role in regional supply chain solutions for the US market through 2025," added Horacia Leal, a principal in Kearney's Mexico City office. "US imports from Mexico rose by 8% between 2024 and 2025, primarily driven by a $47 billion increase in C&E. But we're seeing signs that weakening investment confidence, the uncertainty about USMCA, and the impact of tariffs will likely cause future.