While it's not a surprise that consumers are losing confidence in the economy, it might be a surprise that the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, down from 88.6 in August, which is the lowest level since 2014. 

“Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024. said Dana M. Peterson, chief Economist, The Conference Board, in a statement.

"Perceptions of the current labor market also worsened, though remained within positive territory. Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.”

Peterson continued: “Consumers’ write-in responses regarding factors affecting the economy were mostly pessimistic in September. References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights, reflecting September’s surge in fuel costs. Comments about war/conflict eased this month but remained elevated. Consumers also frequently cited politics, trade, and employment in their write-in responses, though to a lesser extent.” 

On a six-month moving average basis, confidence across all age groups and nearly all income groups trended downward. While higher-income groups remained generally more optimistic, those with a household income of $125,000-$149,000 reported the greatest decline in confidence over the last six months.

By generation, confidence for Gen Z, followed by Millennials, remained the highest on a six-month moving average basis. Confidence among the three oldest generations—Generation X, Baby Boomers, and the Silent Generation—continued to weaken. Confidence fell in September across all political affiliations—Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.

Future Purchasing Plans

On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and homes both declined slightly in September.

Among durable goods, furniture and smartphones remained the top categories consumers desired to buy over the next six months. Spending plans for refrigerators and TV sets fell the moston a six-month moving average basis,while plans for other durable goods moderated slightly.

Expected spending on services over the next six months pared back again in September. The top five planned services spending categories were: restaurants/bars/take-out, streaming/internet/mobile services, beauty and personal care, utilities, and healthcare. 

Beyond the top five, consumers preferred to spend on cheap thrills and necessities. Anticipated spending for many discretionary activities moderated, including hotels for personal travel, movies, airfare, and amusement parks. Household maintenance, financial services, and historical sites/museums saw minor increases in planned spending.

Despite the general pullback in planned services spending, vacation plans held up, with 42.6% of consumers planning a vacation in the next six months—up 0.5 ppts over August. However, this slight month-over-month increase was limited to domestic travel, as planned travel to foreign countries dipped in September.

Present Situation

Consumers’ views of current business conditions fell in September:

• 18.5% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” down from 18.8% in August.
• 20.4% said business conditions were “bad,” up from 17.3%.

Consumers’ views of the labor market softened in September:

• 23.6% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 24.5% in August.
• 21.9% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 20.3%.

Expectations for Six Months  

Consumers were more pessimistic about future business conditions in September:

• 15.9% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 17.0% in August.
• 25.4% expected business conditions to worsen, up from 23.3%.

Consumers were also more negative about the labor market outlook in September:

• 14.0% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, down from 14.8% in August.
• 28.4% expected fewer jobs, up from 26.1%.

Consumers’ assessment of their income prospects was also less optimistic in September:

• 17.9% of consumers expected their income to increase, down from 19.0% in August.
• 15.4% expected their income to decline, up from 13.5%.