The 2026–27 Super El Niño is expected to peak in November–December 2026 and keep disrupting weather patterns through at least the first half of 2027.

A new report from Everstream Analytics, offers an analysis of the risks as well as ways companies can increase their readiness.

Five things supply chain leaders need to know:

Risk has moved from the Atlantic to the Pacific
The Atlantic hurricane season is the quietest on record, while East and West Pacific storm activity runs far above normal, hitting coastal China, Japan, the Koreas and the Philippines.

Southeast Asia is ground zero
Drought in Indonesia is driving wildfires, haze, aviation disruption, low rivers and the worst palm crop conditions in at least 10 years.

Europe's waterways remain constrained
Rhine gauges at Kaub and Cologne sit at record lows, keeping draft restrictions and higher freight costs in place through October.

The Panama Canal faces continued restrictions
Gatun Lake is below average but better than in past El Niño years, thanks to early water management.

Food and beverage is most exposed
Fertilizers, chemicals, energy, electronics, industrial manufacturing and apparel follow.

The report advises companies to use the following steps to mitigate the risk. 

Map suppliers, sites and sub-tier sources in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and India;
assess drought, wildfire and haze exposure through Q1 2027.

Secure alternative or buffer supply for palm oil and other Southeast Asian tropical crops before yield losses reach pricing.

Stress-test West Pacific port and shipping plans for continued typhoon disruption.

Plan around Rhine draft limits through October, then prepare for flooding in France, Spain and Italy as Europe turns wetter.

Budget for Panama Canal draft limits through December–February and evaluate alternative routings.

Add Australia, northern South America and Central America to active dryness monitoring.

Build 2027 plans for a normal to slightly above normal Atlantic hurricane season.

See the full report for more analysis.