A new report, ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index, shows a steep import drop-off following tariff increases on Chinese goods.
The report also notes that rail ramps in key regions are experiencing operational stress as shippers redirect front-loaded inventory to interior point intermodal (IPI) routing, all while cargo theft at rail interchange points shows distressing trends for shippers and providers in 2025.
With the recent temporary tariff reduction officially in place for the next 90 days, the report says shippers are eager to restart imports, replenish inventories, and prepare for upcoming holiday seasons. The sudden surge in demand and uncertainty surrounding long-term availability of Chinese imports has the potential to spur another frontloading event that drives an early start to peak season for businesses in key industries like retail.
“I have clients with thousands of containers pre-loaded in China that are ready to come in,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain at ITS Logistics, in a statement. Over the next four to six weeks, Brashier says he expects a surge of containers, calling the 90-day pause “the pivotal moment for supply chain planning out of China.”
Brashier continued, “Shippers should be prepared to increase trucking and equipment capacity immediately to ensure they can withstand volatility and get their goods to market on time.”
Adding to emerging market challenges, industry experts are reporting a surge in cargo theft. Criminal networks in the US and internationally are exploiting weaknesses in current supply chain systems, as well as technology intended to improve overall efficiency, to steal freight. CNBC recently reported industry-wide losses estimated to be close to $1 billion or more a year.
A leader in fraud prevention solutions, Highway, cited in its quarterly Freight Fraud Index that the company blocked more than 914,000 fraud attempts in 2024, and over 400,000 were blocked in Q1 of 2025 alone. Additionally, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) data showed a 40% year-over-year increase in container theft incidents in 2024.
In the months preceding the April tariff announcement, shippers turned to IPI to move front-loaded goods away from congested ports— only to create new chokepoints at inland rail ramps, where cargo theft is now surging. This is occurring as industry stakeholders demand federal intervention as the current freight fraud crisis escalates, leaving vulnerable supply chains at risk.
Amid industry professionals seeking ways to best navigate the current supply chain disruptions, ITS advises companies to prepare for an early kick-off to peak season that lasts through Q3. Additionally, as the supply chain industry enters Q4, tax policy, deregulation, and federal reserve policy could spur economic growth that drives higher year-over-year (YOY) volumes.
