Shipping to Experience Disruption in 2026
Next year, businesses will face increased security risks, according to a new survey, Global Risk Forecast, from Crisis24.
One risk of importance to the logistics industry is the report’s analysis of how trade policy will disrupt shipping through 2026.
The survey's key highlights include:
Increasing geostrategic competition will disrupt traditional trade routes, especially between the US and China. As a result, cargo will be redirected to emerging hubs, driving volatile freight rates.
Increased US sanctions on Iran and Russia will destabilize maritime security in key regions, affect energy prices, and sustain grey-zone activity and shadow fleet usage.
Tariffs, sanctions, and regional tensions will heighten costs and expose operators to sudden regulatory and security disruptions.
The report says that economic pressure and insecurity will keep freight costs elevated, drive up insurance premiums, and heighten the likelihood of disruption across global shipping lanes.
The authors advise the following mitigation strategies:
Planning: Embed intelligence-led triggers, flexible contracts, and layered protection into day-to-day planning.
Supply Chains: Secure contracts with two alternative ports and inland routes. Set a 48-hour trigger to switch to backup shipping lines and hold priority stock near end markets.
Workforce: Run ship and terminal safety drills quarterly and provide crews with guidance on operating in high-risk ports.
Financial Planning: Maintain a financial reserve and automatic route insurance. Budget for higher upfront costs at alternative gateways, emergency power, and strengthened vessel protection.