Cold Weather Driving Freight's Spot Rate Increase

Spot rates have increased in recent weeks due to frigid winter weather pinching spot capacity during one of the seasonally strongest periods of the year for demand, according to Act Research's Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.

“After three winter storms in the first half of December, TL spot rates are 10% above year-ago levels in late-December, rising about 8% in seasonally adjusted terms over the past month,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president and senior analyst, in a statement.

“The combination of severe weather and solid holiday freight demand tells us the surge is temporary. Weather will warm and consumption will fall again after the holidays.

“However, these past few weeks have done more to swing the pendulum of pricing from shippers back toward fleets than anything we’ve seen in a few years. As the capacity contraction accelerates, this swing will continue in 2026.

“On the other hand, news from the EPA via the ATA in November informed the industry that EPA’27 low-NOx regulations will partially go into effect in 2027. Official word from the EPA is still a few months away, but this provides new motivation to prebuy in 2026.

“A large prebuy isn’t likely, since fleets are still managing down excess capacity from overbuying in 2023-2024, and investment dollars are scarce amid generationally low for-hire truckload profit margins.

But Class 8 orders tend to move with spot rates, regardless of the sustainability of the trend, and this dynamic provides a degree of moderation for the 2026 rate outlook,” Denoyer concluded.