Transportation Showing Signs of Capacity Challenges

Early capacity constraints may signal challenges for the 2026 truckload markets, according to the ITS Logistics January Supply Chain report. 

Additionally, the market is being affected by end-of-year port performance and evolving warehouse trends driven by new inventory strategies and cautious consumers.

Truckload markets tightened in December, as seasonal holiday demand combined with disruptions from the first major winter storm drove dry van load-to-truck ratios to 9.9—the highest in the current market downcycle.

While the market cooled leading into the new year, capacity remains tight as carrier exits continue, and van rates remain notably above historical averages.

Reefer capacity has shown even more aggressive signs of sustained tightening, with demand and rates remaining elevated through mid-January as winter produce season converges with a second round of winter storms.

The USDA is currently reporting an “unusual scarcity” of available trucks in California, with similar constraints and rising spot rates reported across Mexican import gateways and key produce lanes, where carriers are becoming more selective amid tightening availability.

Though the market has seen marginal cooling following the six-week surge, rates remain 18% above the five-year average.

“January reefer activity has offered an early glimpse into potential capacity challenges for demand cycles in the coming year,” said Josh Allen, chief commercial officer at ITS Logistics, in a statement. “Ongoing regulatory changes, carrier exits, and unexpected events like Storm Fern will continue to shrink the margin for overcoming disruption that we’ve become accustomed to as a result of prolonged excess capacity—even if demand remains muted.”

Ports

At the ports, December volumes underscored an ongoing soft environment. US container imports totaled 2,227,316 TEUs, down 5.9% year-over-year. Full-year 2025 import volumes finished 0.4% below 2024 levels, reversing the nearly 10% growth margin seen earlier in the year as frontloading faded and consumer demand softened.

Month-over-month, however, volumes rose 2% from November, marking one of the stronger Decembers of the past decade, despite seasonal slowdowns.

Performance across gateways was mixed, with several smaller ports posting notable gains. These rebounds come after a year of uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions and proposed port call fees tied to Chinese-built vessels, which had raised concerns about volume diversion away from smaller gateways. 

In an interview with FreightWaves, Port of Oakland’s Maritime Director stated that while the gateway’s total container volume for 2025 was flat (0.4% over 2024 levels), it was considered a “notable outcome” in the face of ongoing uncertainty and volatility.

Warehousing

Early consumer reports state that holiday retail sales grew approximately 4% year-over-year, reflecting resilient but cautious consumer spending, despite ongoing uncertainty. Consumer confidence weakened further in December, with the Conference Board index falling to 89.1 for the fifth consecutive monthly decline as inflation pressures eased only modestly and labor markets continued to cool.

That dynamic is now visible across the warehousing landscape as the industry enters 2026. In December, the Logistics Managers’ Index registered 54.2, its slowest pace of expansion since April 2024, as firms continued to draw down inventories without replenishing.

Throughout the month, warehouse utilization fell to historically low levels, positioning retailers for a year of lean inventory strategy with a focus on sell-through. While utilization softened, warehousing prices remained elevated due to persistent labor and facility cost pressures.

“This release of warehouse capacity was driven primarily by inventory behavior, not new supply, creating short-term rate options for shippers and margin pressure for operators,” said Ryan Martin, President of Distribution and Fulfillment for ITS Logistics. “The inventory status can also be tied to the current US tariffs, existing inventory carrying costs, and retailers who are deliberately and strategically keeping inventory lean, while wholesalers and other intermediaries are bearing a larger share of the overall experienced burden.”