Geopolitics, Tariffs, Cargo Theft: Issues Logistics Sector Faces

Globally, geopolitical developments are reshaping shipping patterns, and domestically, rising cargo theft and new driver regulation proposals are increasing pressure on inland transportation networks, according to the recently released March forecast of the ITS Logistics U.S. Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index.

Lunar New Year peak activity may materialize as a non-traditional, post-holiday volume increase,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of Global Supply Chain for ITS Logistics, in a statement. “These volumes, combined with adverse weather throughout North America, evolving geopolitical tensions, cargo theft, and trucking capacity exits, are escalating all regions to elevated concern.”

Tariff policy is once again top of mind for shippers following the U.S. Supreme Court’s February ruling against the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) immediately following the ruling, President Trump announced he would implement a blanket 10% tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows the President to enact “temporary import surcharges” without Congressional approval for up to 150 days. The new so-called global tariffs went into effect on February 24.

“While this may not have an immediate impact on inbound planned volumes, it could change sourcing strategies and create bottlenecks in certain origin markets,” Brashier said.

Compounding these concerns are escalating tensions in Middle Eastern maritime corridors following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which could further disrupt global shipping networks. Attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz have prompted major ocean carriers to reroute vessels around the southern tip of Africa, increasing transit time and causing cascading supply chain disruptions.

Maritime insurance carriers have also begun cancelling war-risk coverage and increasing premiums for the region.  President Trump has offered early reassurances that the U.S. will provide political risk insurance and potential naval protection for the sake of protecting this strategically critical corridor that serves as a chokepoint for 20% of the world's crude oil supply.

"With the exception of these affected routes, ocean container booking costs remain well below normal levels in both the spot and contract markets. The Journal of Commerce reports that current rates and trend forecasting are causing shippers and ocean carriers to delay signing contracts, anticipating further rate decreases.

Against the backdrop of renewed geopolitical uncertainty, container volumes for February were beginning to show signs of stabilization. U.S. container imports totaled 2,318,722 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in January, up 4.1% month-over-month but down 6.8% compared to 2025.

The trends indicate a typical seasonal rebound from the holiday slowdown, but still reflect relatively flat overall demand. Imports from China increased 9.3% month-over-month in January but remained down 22.7% compared to the same period last year, per Descartes.

At the same time, sourcing diversification across Southeast Asia accelerated, with imports from India rising 22%, Vietnam increasing 4.8%, and Thailand climbing 8.6% as companies adjusted procurement strategies to mitigate tariff exposure in China. With the IEEPA framework now replaced by uniform tariff rates, it is yet to be seen whether this diversification will continue.

Outside of the ports, rail theft reemerges as a top concern in freight fraud conversations. Major rail corridors near Los Angeles, Chicago, and Memphis have been identified as high-risk locations for container tampering on rail, as organized crime groups increasingly target intermodal freight moving inland on isolated spans of track, according to a report from BSI Consulting.

Driver regulation efforts continue with several legislative developments moving through state and federal legislatures. The proposed Dalilah’s Law, a Congressional bill which would codify many guidelines within the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) Final Ruling issued in February, would restrict commercial license eligibility to U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents, and a narrow set of visa holders.

The bill would also require all CDL tests to be administered in English, with a mandatory recertification process for all license holders to be completed within 180 days of the bill’s passing. Industry analysts forecast that — while actual estimates and timelines vary — the removal of affected drivers from the capacity pool will likely place upward pressure on rates.

“Between the pressures of capacity exits, rising operating costs, and market volatility, shippers should be prepared for inland capacity cost increases during this RFP cycle, especially from smaller capacity providers,” said Brashier.