In June, energy-driven inflation continues to challenge all aspects of the supply chain, reshaping consumer spending patterns and pushing the cost of inventory higher as peak season approaches. Continued regulatory efforts continue to drive out capacity, pushing prices higher even as demand remains subdued.

This is according to the June Supply Chain Report from ITS Logistics. 

U.S. inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May — its highest reading in more than two years. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose only 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, a meaningfully lower reading that illustrates the extent to which fuel prices are driving inflation.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell for the first time in four months in May, as conflict in the Middle East and sustained high prices tested consumer resilience.

Consumers have begun redirecting spending toward essentials — visible in retail gasoline station sales, which are climbing 26.5% year-over-year.

The discretionary categories that generate meaningful freight volume are now competing with fuel and food for a limited household budget share, a shift that could influence freight mix heading into peak season.

The Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) Transportation Prices reading reached 96.0 in May — the highest ever recorded. Rates for dry van and reefer capacity remained significantly above the five-year historical average, while capacity signals like equipment posts and load-to-truck ratio remain tight even when adjusting for seasonal trends.

DAT data did show slight rate dips in the week following the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance's annual Roadcheck Week, but ongoing legislative and enforcement activity at both the state and federal levels will continue to drive out capacity, driving supply-side price increases.

"Despite objectively low demand, shippers are paying materially more to move freight — and they should not expect that trend to reverse any time soon," said Josh Allen, chief commercial officer at ITS Logistics, in a statement.

The same cost challenges are extending from the truckload market into parcel and final mile, where both UPS and FedEx are simultaneously shrinking their networks and increasing revenue per package. UPS has already closed 23 facilities in 2026 with  27 more planned; FedEx is executing a similar consolidation through its Network 2.0 initiative.

In warehousing, May Inventory Costs jumped 9.4 points to 84.1 — the highest reading since May 2022 — even as Inventory Levels flatlined, confirming that holding costs are rising independent of volume.

"Shippers relying on single-carrier strategies or static network designs are bearing the full impact of both carrier restructuring and tightening freight conditions," said Jeff Lolli, VP of Solutions Engineering & Small Parcel, in a statement. "What used to be considered optimization — multi-carrier strategies, zone skipping, and inventory positioned closer to demand — is quickly becoming the baseline for cost control."

At the ports, containerized import volumes are returning to seasonal trends following 2025 frontloading activity. U.S. containerized imports totaled 2,428,758 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), a 6.6% increase from April, per Descartes Systems Group's June Global Shipping Report, with imports to the Gulf Coast falling just short of record highs. China-origin imports also rebounded sharply, climbing 19.9% month over month and 28.1% compared to May 2025 — though a reigniting of trade tensions may challenge that growth in the coming months.