Carrier rates fell 3.3% per package from Q2, while what operators actually paid declined just 0.6%, according to the Q3 2026 issue of Commerce Signal from Deposco, a provider of AI-based supply chain software solutions.

"Rates came down, but operators didn’t feel it. That’s the story of the quarter," said Eric Lemus, vice president of Strategy and Data Analytics at Deposco, in a statement. "Every margin conversation we’re having right now comes back to what actually shipped. That’s where the money went and where operators should focus."

The gap is not contracts; it is what shipped. Heavier packages, faster services and more residential deliveries absorbed most of the potential rate relief. An outside index on a different set of shippers found the same pattern: the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index put ground parcel cost per package down 2.6% from Q2 and 5.2% above a year earlier.

The report also revisits a call from July, when Deposco's inaugural Commerce Signal report predicted parcel inflation would continue rising into the third quarter. Instead, rates peaked the day the data closed and declined throughout the quarter. The new issue explains why and how the methodology was adjusted.

Additional Q3 findings

Growth held its pace. GMV growth closed the quarter at 11.7% and order growth at 5.3%. Read month by month, GMV growth has run near 10% and order growth near 3% to 5% since spring, all while pushing through a record low in consumer sentiment.

Inventory caught up. Median days on hand closed at 93, level with last year for the first time since the destocking began, after a three-week build in September.

Peak will cost more per package than Q3. Peak surcharges begin October 25, and crude was back to about 40% above its July low by mid-October.

The issue's advice to operators: if rates are still 3.3% below their Q2 average, explore a new contracted rate on the longest term available; if rising fuel costs have already pushed them back up, trade for a cap on the fuel surcharge instead.

Commerce Signal is built on activity flowing through the Deposco platform, from more than 4,900 supply chain operators representing over $84 billion in GMV and 485 million orders a year.