The July Logistics Manager’s Index, released on September 2, came in at 68.9, down from June’s reading of 71.1, which had been the fastest rate of expansion since March 2022.

The report noted that while this is a moderate rate of expansion compared to the last few months, July’s 68.9 is higher than any readings made at any point from 2023-2025.

The slowdown in expansion stems from slower growth in inventory levels (-5.5 to 55.0), which had seen a spike last year as respondents pulled inventory forward ahead of anticipated tariff increases in July.

The difference is particularly pronounced for downstream retailers, who went from robust inventory level expansion at 66.0 last month to contraction at 46.3.

This dramatic shift may signify that the inventories that were pulled forward ahead of the holiday season are currently sitting upstream at the wholesale level.

Despite the slowdown in inventory levels, inventory costs continue to expand (+1.1) to 77.0 – outstripping levels by 22.0 points and demonstrating the ongoing increases in the relative costs of inventories due to tariffs and war.
 
Physical logistics infrastructure continues to be strained, with both warehousing capacity (-1.3 to 46.3) and transportation capacity (-2.4 to 28.4) tightening.

The lack of storage space has driven warehousing prices to 75.5, which is the fastest rate of expansion for this metric since January of 2025, in the initial rush of imports ahead of the anticipated tariff regime of the incoming second Trump administration.

The transportation capacity reading is especially low, tying with the capacity reading from April of this year as the second-fastest level of contraction ever observed for any metric in the history of the index (slower only than September 2020’s Transportation Capacity reading of 23.8).

Despite this tightness, transportation price expansion has slowed (-5.5) to the still-high level of 86.9, which is the lowest reading for this metric since the outbreak of hostilities with Iran in late February. 

Transportation utilization expansion has slowed as well, dipping 9.7 points from June’s reading of 74.7 (which is the second-highest rate of expansion in the history of that metric).

Colorado State University, Florida Atlantic University, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno authored the report in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).